Crude oil today :Crude oil picks up in Asia with Irma effect and Chinese yuan in center

Oil costs edged up on Monday after the Saudi oil serves talked about potentially stretching out an agreement to cut worldwide oil supplies past March 2018 with his Venezuelan and Kazakh partners.

News of the discussions on Sunday helped balance descending weight on oil costs in the midst of stresses that vitality request would be hit hard by Hurricane Irma and its result.

The sea tempest thumped out energy to about 4 million homes and organizations in Florida on Sunday. It is conjecture to debilitating to a typhoon over northern Florida or southern Georgia later on Monday.

U.S. crude for October conveyance (CLc1) was up 39 pennies, or 0.8 percent, at $47.87 a barrel by 0409 GMT, having tumbled 3.3 percent on Friday.

London Brent crude for November conveyance (LCOc1) was up 22 pennies, or 0.4 percent, at $54, having settled down 1.3 percent.

"The oil advertise responded to the Saudi talks," said Tomomichi Akuta, senior market analyst at Mitsubishi UFJ Research and Consulting in Tokyo. "The drop in U.S. oil refining is likewise to be counterbalanced by higher handling at different countries, so stresses over a significant cut in crude oil request are blurring."

Typhoon Harvey - which hit two weeks prior - pushed the U.S. refinery utilize rate to a seven-year low, yet generally saved oil and petrochemical plants along the U.S. Bay Coast from noteworthy harm. A few units are currently restarting after shutdowns in front of or amid the prior tempest.

Motiva Enterprises was beginning up the vast crude unit - somewhat more than 50 percent of limit - at its Port Arthur, Texas, refinery on Sunday, as per a source comfortable with plant operations.

OPEC and different makers, including Russia, have consented to decrease crude yield by around 1.8 million barrels for each day through the finish of next March in an offer to diminish worldwide oil inventories and bolster oil costs.

The Saudi vitality service said Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih concurred with his Kazakh partner that the choice to broaden the rebalancing exertion would be considered at the appropriate time.

Somewhere else, Iran will achieve an oil creation rate of 4.5 million barrels for each day (bpd) inside five years, a senior Iranian industry official said on Sunday. Iran has been delivering around 3.8 million bpd as of late.

Saudi Arabia on Saturday likewise suspended any exchange with Qatar, blaming it for "misshaping certainties", soon after a report of a telephone call between the pioneers of the two nations recommended a leap forward in the debate that additionally includes the United Arab Emirates, Egypt and Bahrain.

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Oil prices rise on sharp drop in U.S. creation as sea tempests chomp

Oil costs ascended on Friday as U.S. rough generation was hit harder by Hurricane Harvey than anticipated, with significantly greater tempest Irma heading for Florida and undermining to make more disturbance the oil business.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rough fates (CLc1) were at $49.23 barrel at 0456 GMT, 14 pennies or 0.3 percent over their last settlement.

Brent rough fates (LCOc1), the benchmark at oil costs outside the United States, were up 26 pennies to $54.75 a barrel, barely short of their Friday pinnacle of $54.79 a barrel, their most abnormal amount since April.

"WTI may break higher as tempests restrain unrefined processing...U.S. oil generation offices haven't completely recouped from Hurricane Harvey," said Fawad Razaqzada, showcase expert at fates financier Forex.com.

Typhoon Harvey hit the U.S. Bay drift two weeks back, and unrefined costs at first drooped in light of the fact that very nearly a fourth of the nation's enormous refinery industry was thumped out by the tempest, cutting interest for raw petroleum, refining's soul.

Be that as it may, as the refinery part slowly recoups, so is its unrefined handling.

"Most refineries are restarting and we expect a close full recuperation by month-end," U.S. venture bank Jefferies said.

Harvey's effect was additionally felt in oil creation. U.S. oil yield fell by right around 8 percent, from 9.5 million barrels for every day (bpd) to 8.8 million bpd, as indicated by the Energy Information Administration (EIA).

Port and refinery terminations along the Gulf drift and cruel ocean conditions in the Caribbean have additionally affected delivering.

"Imports (of oil) to the U.S. Bay Coast tumbled to levels not seen since the 1990s," ANZ bank said.

Merchants said it would take a long time for the U.S. oil industry to come back to full limit, and that under the present conditions it was hard to recognize major market patterns.

"The information during the current week and next will be brought with a grain of salt as the fundamental pattern will be darkened by the impacts of the sea tempest," said William O'Loughlin, venture investigator at Rivkin Securities.

Indeed, even as the oil business keeps on pondering the aftermath from Harvey, a significantly greater Hurricane was lashing the Caribbean islands and heading for the United States.

Sea tempest Irma, which has turned out to be one of the greatest tempests at any point measured - getting the Twitter hashtag #irmageddon - on Friday hit the Dominican Republic and Haiti, heading for Cuba and the Bahamas. It was anticipated to hit Florida by Saturday.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) said that Irma was as yet a Category 5 Hurricane, with twist rates of 175 miles for each hour (280 km/h).

"Any further interruptions in oil and gas creation could additionally broaden the rally in vitality costs or at least keep costs offer (up) until the point that the risk of hurricanes scatters," said Forex.com examiner Razaqzada.

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Crude Oil Prices Break Range Support, Gold May Fall on US Data

Ideas: 

•  Crude oil  costs break 2-week extend floor regardless of energetic API information 
• Gold costs withdraw from 9-month has North Korea stresses fail 
• Modified US Q2 GDP, ADP occupations information may help Fed rate climb wagers 

 Crude oil costs kept on retribution with the effect of Tropical Storm Harvey. The WTI benchmark at first confronted offering weight in the midst of proceeded with worries that storm instigated refinery shutdowns will undermine endeavors to work through a supply overabundance, reverberating yesterday's value activity.

That story appeared to change however as in the midst of reports that crude material makers may react to waiting pipeline interruptions by decreasing yield. That appeared to start an intraday bob, however this was to be fleeting even as API detailed a stock drawdown of 5.78 million barrels a week ago.

Official EIA stock insights are currently on tap, with middle gauges indicating a more unobtrusive 1.9 million barrel outpouring. A perusing nearer in accordance with API information may offer a level of help yet the business sectors' lukewarm reaction to that figure appear to imply that Harvey-related advancements will stay in center.

Gold costs withdrew after quickly touching the most abnormal amount in nine months. The surge trailed North Korea directed another rocket test however the prominent nonattendance of "flame and fierceness" with respect to the US from there on appeared to quiet financial specialists.

This most likely puts Fed arrangement hypothesis to the bleeding edge for the yellow metal. A reconsidered set of second-quarter US GDP figures and the ADP gage of private payrolls development may sent it lower if wagers on mellow enhancements are bested, resounding progressively perky US monetary news-stream since mid-June.


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GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Gold costs prominently neglected to affirm a break over the 38.2% Fibonacci extension at 1311.94 and negative RSI dissimilarity focuses to ebbing upside force, indicating a turn lower might be ahead. Crushing spirit beneath resistance-turned-bolster at 1295.46 uncovered the August 25 low at 1275.34. On the other hand, a move back over 1311.94 opens the entryway for another trial of the half extension at 1323.25.

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Crude oil costs, at last, settled what to do in the wake of burning through two weeks stuck in a thin range, getting through help to uncover the half Fibonacci development at 45.46. A day by day close beneath this boundary sees the following significant edge in the 42.08-84 zone (June 21 low, 76.4% level). On the other hand, a move back over the 38.2% Fib at 46.62 targets bolster turned-resistance at 48.76 once again.

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Oil costs steady as solid request meets progressing supply overabundance

Oil costs were steady on Tuesday, upheld by solid utilization yet weighed by continuous high supplies from maker club OPEC and furthermore the United States.

Brent unrefined fates LCOc1 , the worldwide benchmark at oil costs, were at $48.55 per barrel at 0130 GMT, up 13 pennies, or 0.3 percent, from their last close.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) unrefined prospects CLc1 were at $46.12 per barrel, up 10 pennies, or 0.2 percent.

In an indication of the solid request, information on Monday demonstrated refineries in China expanded rough throughput in June to the second most elevated on record. this, oil markets have battled with oversupply since 2014, bringing about a more than 50 percent fall in costs from that point forward.

An arrangement by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries with Russia and other non-OPEC makers to cut supplies by around 1.8 million barrels for every day (bpd) between January this year and March 2018 has so far not prompted the more tightly showcase and higher costs that makers have sought after.

That is on account of provisions from inside OPEC stay high to a great extent because of rising yield from Nigeria and Libya, two OPEC states absolved from the settlement and expanding U.S. generation.

Ecuador, a little maker inside OPEC, likewise said on Tuesday that it is not agreeing to its creation sliced of 26,000 bpd because of the nation's financial shortfall which is relied upon to hit 7.5 percent of GDP this year.

Oil Minister Carlos Perez said that Ecuador was just cutting about 60 percent of that figure, putting current yield at 545,000 bpd.

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OPEC’S TOTAL OIL EXPORTS STOOD AT 25.187

OPEC’s total oil exports stood at 25.187 million barrels per day (bpd), down from 25.424 million bpd in May, and down from 25.493 million bpd in October 2016.  The decline in exports was driven by UAE, Algeria, Kuwait and Iran. 

Saudi Arabia exports jumped by 657,000 bpd compared to May, and stood at 7.205 million bpd.

Crude Oil Price Status:

Currently, Crude Oil is trading at 46.98, down -0.19%, having posted a daily high at 47.32 and low at 46.74.

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OPEC PRODUCERS BOOSTED THEIR OUTPUT BY 260,000 BPD

According to a Bloomberg News survey of analysts, oil companies and ship-tracking data, the OPEC producers boosted their output by 260,000 bpd, when compared with May.

Key findings from the survey:

Half the increase came from Libya and Nigeria, which are exempt from the OPEC and non-OPEC output cut deal.

OPEC’s biggest producer Saudi Arabia increased output by 90,000 barrels a day in June, while Angola and the UAE both lifted production by 40,000 barrels a day from May.

The addition of Equatorial Guinea’s 150,000 barrels a day of output increased the cartel’s total June production to 32.55 million barrels a day.

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THE NET BULLISH BETS FOR CRUDE OIL ARE REDUCED FOR THE THIRD CONSECUTIVE WEEK

The data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday showed the speculators reduced the net bullish bets for the third consecutive week. 

The non-commercial futures contracts of WTI Crude Oil futures saw a weekly reduction of -1,576 contracts to total 328,764 net contracts. The overall position has now fallen to the lowest standing since November 29th.

Oil benchmarks - WTI and Brent - suffered more than 14% drop in the first half; the biggest fall since 1998. Brent and WTI fell about 19% in the first half of 1998. 

Current Crude Oil Status:

Currently, Crude Oil is trading at 46.19, up + 0.33%, having posted a daily high at 46.38 and low at 46.15.

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OIL PRICES ARE ON THE RISE FOR THE SIXTH STRAIGHT DAY

Oil prices are on the rise for the sixth straight day as the drop in the US output provided much needed momentum for the technical correction set in motion by the oversold technical conditions. 

At the time of writing, Brent front month contract was up 25 cents or 0.53% at $47.80/barrel. WTI was up 21 cents or 0.47% at $44.95/barrel. 

The technical correction gathered pace on Wednesday after the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) data showed the gasoline inventories fell 894K last week. The US oil production fell 100K barrels to 9.3 million barrels per day. This was the biggest decline since July 2016. 

The drop in the US gasoline inventories and weekly oil production overshadowed the inventory data which showed a buildup of 2.6 million barrels. 

The three-day decline in the USD index from 97.16 to 95.51 is also keeping the oil benchmarks well bid this Thursday morning in Asia. 

Crude Oil Current Status:

Currently, Crude Oil is trading at 44.94, up +0.45%, having posted a daily high at 45.03 and low at 44.75.

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WTI TAKES ON THE RECOVERY ABOVE $ 44

Oil futures on NYMEX paused its four-day bullish run on Wednesday, as the sentiment remains undermined by bearish API crude inventory report. However, the commodity is on a minor-recovery mode so far this session, looking to regain the bids above $ 44 mark.

The tepid recovery seen in the black gold can be mainly attributed to the renewed selling pressure seen in the US dollar versus its major peers, with the DXY hitting fresh seven-month lows just ahead of 96 handle.

Oil prices witnessed a sharp drop in the overnight trades after the API crude inventory report showed that the US inventories rose by 851,000 barrels in the week to June 23 to 509.5 million, compared with expectations for a decrease of 2.6 million barrels. Unexpected build in the US crude reserves re-ignited supply glut concerns.

All eyes now remains on the official US government oil reserves data due later today on Wednesday for fresh trading impetus. At the time of writing, WTI trades -0.35% lower at $ 44.11, while Brent trades modestly flat at 46.84 levels.

WTI technical levels 

We can expect start of downtrend from resistance level 44.45 - 44.90 with target on support 42.50 and lower, on 41.30 - 38.00. The uptrend may be expected to continue in case the market rises above resistance level 44.90, which will be followed by reaching resistance level 46.20.

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CRUDE OIL ROSE FOR A FOURTH CONSECUTIVE SESSION ON TUESDAY

Crude oil futures rose for a fourth consecutive session on Tuesday as investors covered short positions, though worries over a festering supply glut kept a lid on prices.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures (CLc1) were up 12 cents, or 0.3 percent, at $43.50 per barrel by 0323 GMT. Brent crude futures (LCOc1) gained 14 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $45.97 per barrel.

The market is up slightly so far this week after dropping for the past five weeks.

"The market has fallen a lot as the news has been bad pretty consistently for the oil market," said Ric Spooner, chief market analyst at CMC Markets in Sydney.

"It has moved a long way in response to that news. Maybe we are getting to a point that there is upside risk to any good news?"

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its partners have been trying to reduce a global crude glut with production cuts. OPEC states and 11 other exporters agreed in May to extend cuts of 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) until March.

However, Nigeria and Libya, OPEC members exempt from the cuts, have raised output.

Iran was allowed a small increase to recover market share lost under Western sanctions over its nuclear programme. It said its production has surpassed 3.8 million bpd and is expected to reach 4 million bpd by March.

And U.S. shale oil output has risen around 10 percent since last year, with the number of U.S. oil rigs in operation at the highest in more than three years.

Hedge funds and other money managers appear to have abandoned all hope that OPEC will rebalance the oil market, slashing formerly bullish bets on crude futures and options, John Kemp, a Reuters market analyst wrote in a column.

"Exchange data showed that speculators had cut their net long positions in WTI and Brent to (the) lowest level in 10 months last week," ANZ said in a note.

"Traders are also looking ahead to the EIA Energy Conference in Washington, where U.S. shale oil producers are expected to give their view of current market conditions."

Analysts at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch said demand had not grown quickly enough to absorb excess output.

As the global oil market frets about a stubborn supply glut, faltering demand growth in key Asian crude importers is further hampering efforts to restore market balance.

A fuel glut in China, a hangover from demonetisation in India, and an ageing, declining population in Japan are holding back crude oil demand growth in three of the world's top four oil buyers.

Crude Oil Current Price:

Currently, Crude Oil is trading at 43.50, up + 0.28%, having posted a daily high at 43.56 and low at 43.32.

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NET BULLISH POSITIONS ON WTI FALL TO LOWEST LEVEL IN 10 MONTHS

The latest CFCT data showed on Friday, hedge funds cut bets on rising West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude prices by 31% in the week ended June 20, pushing their net bullish position to the lowest in 10 months, re-enforcing view that the US oil has entered into a bear market, Bloomberg reports.

Money managers’ WTI net long positions fell by 60,556 to 134,742 contracts. Long positions fell by 5.7 percent to 301,476, the lowest in almost eight months, while short positions grew by 34 percent to 166,734, the most since August, the CFTC noted.

Bets on falling gasoline prices reached their highest level in six weeks while bearish positions on diesel were the largest in a year and a half, according to the CFTC.

Crude Oil Current price:

Currently, Crude Oil is trading at 43.52, up + 1.19%, having posted a daily high at 43.60 and low at 43.12.

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A DROP IN THE US OIL INVENTORIES LAST WEEK ADDED RELIEF RALLY IN THE OIL PRICES

A drop in the US oil inventories last week added credence to the oversold technical conditions and yielded correction/relief rally in the oil prices. 

At the time of writing, Brent oil was trading just short of $55 handle. Prices clocked a 7-month low of $44.34 on Wednesday. The daily RSI is still oversold. WTI oil printed a low of $42.03 yesterday and was last seen trading around $42.65 levels. 

The data released in the US yesterday showed the inventories fell 2.5 million barrels in the week ended June 16. Markets were expecting a decline of 2.1 million barrels. The good news didn’t just stop there. Gasoline stocks decline 578K barrels, beating the estimated gain of 443K barrels. 

Despite the bullish data, the recovery in oil prices is anaemic. Markets also shrugged off bullish sound bites from the OPEC - members are considering deeper production cuts. As mentioned earlier, the RSI is oversold, so a technical correction may gather pace. 

Current Crude Oil Price:

Currently, Crude Oil is trading at 42.52, up +0.53%, having posted a daily high at 42.72 and low at 42.30.

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OIL IS DOWN MORE THAN 20% FROM ITS YEARLY HIGHS

Oil is down more than 20% from its yearly highs - a classic case of a bear market. WTI Oil closed yesterday at $43.33/barrel (yearly high is $55.21). Brent closed at $45.80/barrel (yearly high is $58.35). 

The benchmarks look set to end on a weaker note for the fourth consecutive month. 

The bear market clearly represents the OPEC’s failure to convince markets that the 9-month extension of the output cut deal would counter the rise in the US Shale output and therefore reduce the supply glut. Also responsible for the drop in the oil prices is the increased production by countries like Libya, which have been exempt from the supply glut deal. 

Drop in headline CPIs likely, Fed could go slow with the rate hikes

The sell-off in the oil prices is likely to push the headline CPI (which includes energy prices) lower across the globe. The drop in the CPI would be more painful for the inflationists rooting for 2% annualised rise in inflation across the advanced world. 

The drop in the inflation may provide room for the Fed to go slow with the rate hikes. Markets do not expect the Fed to hike rates until December. 

Current Crude Oil Status:

Currently, Crude Oil is trading at 43.43, down -0.18%, having posted a daily high at 43.57 and low at 43.35.

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UAE to cut oil yield in accordance with Opec

The UAE will go along completely with its Opec sense of duty regarding lessen oil creation by more than 139,000 barrels for every day (bpd) in March and April, Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazroui said on Thursday. 

"UAE creation cut for March and April will be more than 139,000 bpd because of the support exercises, which implies more than 100 percent consistence," Al Mazroui composed on his Twitter account. 

"(The) UAE is focused on its offer of the generation cut concurred with Opec." 

The UAE, among the center Gulf Opec aggregate that generally demonstrates high consistence with yield assentions, has concentrated on extending its generation limit over the most recent couple of years. 

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has swore to check its generation by around 1.2 million bpd from January 1, the main cut in eight years, to lift costs and dispose of a supply overabundance.

Consistence with yield limitations has regularly been an issue for Opec in the past however this time the gathering conveyed diminishments adding up to as much as 90 percent of the objective in the main month alone. 

The UAE has conveyed a littler bit of its vowed decrease, in view of its own figures and Opec yield appraises by government organizations, advisors and industry media. 

Under the Opec bargain, the UAE was to slice generation to 2.874 million bpd. It disclosed to Opec it created 3.06 million bpd in January, and a Reuters review evaluated its yield at 2.98 million bpd. 

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CRUDE OIL PRICE TRADES NEAR 6-MONTH LOWS

Crude Oil price trades near 6-month lows as concerns of excess supply keep buyers at the bay. 

At the time of writing, Brent was up 16 cents at $46.90/barrel. WTI Oil was flat lined around $44.45/barrel. Both benchmarks have dropped more than 10% since late May even though OPEC extended the output cut deal by an extra nine months until the end of the first quarter of 2018.

Moreover, bulls are demoralized by evidence of a surge in Russian and US output. As per Reuters calculations, “Russia is expected to export 61.2 million tonnes of oil in the third quarter (around 5 million bpd), against 60.5 million tonnes in the second quarter”. 

Meanwhile, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) report released earlier this month said the US output is expected to rise above 10 million bpd in 2018. The US output has already risen close to 10% over the past year to 9.3 million bpd. 

Current Crude Oil Status:

Currently, Crude Oil is trading at 44.44, down -0.04%, having posted a daily high at 44.48 and low at 44.24.

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CRUDE OIL PRICES REMAIN UNDER PRESSURE THIS THURSDAY

Crude oil prices remain under pressure this Thursday morning in Asia after the International energy Agency data showed global oil stocks had increased despite attempts by major OPEC and non-OPEC producers to curb supplies and rebalance the market.

At the time of writing, Brent was trading marginally weaker around $46.95/barrel. WTI was down 11 cents at $44.60/barrel.

The IEA report said the oil inventories in the industrialized nations grew by 18.6 million barrels in April. Inventories were 292 million barrels higher than the average over the past five years. Earlier this week, the API reported 2.8 million barrel rise in the US oil inventories. 

Prices fell nearly 4% on Wednesday to their lowest close in seven months on the back of an unexpected large build in gasoline inventories. The US EIA reported a 2.1 million-barrel increase in gasoline inventories last week. The gasoline inventories are now 9% higher than their five-year average.

Current Crude Oil price:

Currently, Crude Oil is trading at 44.71, down -0.04%, having posted a daily high at 44.73 and low at 44.46.

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Oil prices edged higher on Tuesday

Oil prices edged higher on Tuesday after Opec detailed supply cuts around the world, but the cartel also said overall production rose in May, and crude stayed well below US$50 a barrel despite the modest recovery.

Benchmark Brent crude was 28 cents higher at US$48.57 a barrel as of 1.53pm EDT (1753 GMT), while US light crude was up 21 cents to US$46.29 a barrel.

The world's top exporter Saudi Arabia outlined cuts to customers in July that included a reduction of 300,000 barrels per day (bpd) to Asia as well as deeper cuts in allocations to the United States.

Riyadh is leading an effort by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and other oil producers to cut output by almost 1.8 million bpd until March 2018 to curb oversupply.

Those efforts thus far have largely not succeeded. Brent futures are trading at higher prices for further-dated contracts, which is an encouragment for more production rather than less.

"Crude oil is still struggling to rebound," said Olivier Jakob, strategist at Petromatrix, adding that Opec's gradual approach to rebalancing was giving US producers time to drill new wells that were undermining the impact of the group's cuts.

In addition, Opec's monthly report showed output from the group rose by 336,000 bpd in May to 32.14 million bpd, led by a recovery in Nigeria and Libya which are exempt from supply cuts. The report said the market was rebalancing at a "slower pace."

"By some accounts this increase is a troubling threat to Opec compliance, but we note that it was driven by 352,000 bpd of additional supply from Libya and Nigeria," wrote Tim Evans, energy analyst at Citigroup.

The market's weakness can be seen in technical activity surrounding Brent crude, where the 50-day moving average fell through the 200-day moving average on Monday, an indicator of a near-term weakening trend also known as a "death cross."

The last time this happened, in mid-2014, it was a precursor to a massive selloff in oil that dropped Brent from US$108 a barrel to about US$47 a barrel in the span of five months.

Trade data show Opec shipments to customers averaged around 26 million bpd in the last six months of 2016 and are set to average around 25.3 million bpd in the first half of this year.

Meanwhile, US drilling activity has continued apace, driving up US output by more than 10 per cent since mid-2016 to above 9.3 million bpd.

US crude inventories remain stubbornly high. Traders will be watching figures on last week's US stockpiles to be released later on Tuesday by industry group the American Petroleum Institute. 

Analysts estimated, on average, that crude stocks fell 2.7 million barrels in the week ended June 9.

Traders said market intelligence firm Genscape had forecast a draw down of more than 1.8 million barrels at the Cushing, Oklahoma delivery point for US crude futures.

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OIL PRICES ROSE EARLY ON MONDAY AS FUTURES TRADERS BET THE MARKET

Oil prices rose early on Monday as futures traders bet the market may have bottomed after a recent steep fall, even as physical markets remain bloated by oversupply, especially from a relentless rise in US drilling.

Brent crude futures were trading at US$48.44 per barrel at 0101 GMT, up 29 cents, or 0.6, from their last close.

US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at US$46.09 per barrel, up 26 cents, or 0.6 per cent.

Traders said that the price rises came on the back of speculative traders upping their investment into crude futures, by taking on large volumes of long positions, which would profit from a further price rise.

The rise in new long positions comes after Brent and WTI crude futures have fallen by around 10 per cent below their opening levels on May 25, when an Opec-led policy to cut oil output was extended to cover the first quarter of 2018 instead of expiring this June.

Qatar remains committed to oil output cut deal

Qatar's energy minister, Mohammed al-Sada, saying that Qatar remains committed to the OPEC & non-OPEC oil output cut deal agreed last month.

Al-Sada’s comments came after Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Bahrain, Yemen & the United Arab Emirates (UAE) cut diplomatic and economic ties with Qatar last week.

Russia: OPEC/non-OPEC output cut deal at this stage

Russia’s energy minister Alexander Novak crossed the wires over the weekend, noting the following:

Sees no need to review the OPEC/non-OPEC output cut deal at this stage.

It’s too early in to make any decisions on changes.

At the time of writing, both crude benchmarks trade +0.50 higher, with WTI just ahead of $ 46 mark, while Brent near $ 48.40.

Current Crude Oil Status:

Currently, Crude Oil is trading at 46.13, up + 0.65%, having posted a daily high at 46.15 and low at 45.72.

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OIL MARKET INVENTORY DECLINE HAS BEEN SLOW

Oil market inventory decline has been slow, but is set to accelerate in 3Q as Shale oil is recovering fast, but still see risks of a longer-term supply crunch with the lack of new projects elsewhere.

Key Considerations:

“Updating price assumptions: We continue to believe current crude prices are unsustainable, and have concerns over the lack of conventional non-OPEC supply beyond the next couple of years. 

However, the weakness in recent prices coupled with the scale of growth in US activity has prompted us to update our crude price assumptions for the first time since January 2016. Our new assumptions are for average Brent prices of USD56/b in 2017 (vs USD60/b), rising to USD65/b in 2018 and USD70/b in 2019, vs our previous expectation of a return to USD75/b by 2018.”

“Look for bigger inventory declines in 2H: So far in 2017, despite good supply restraint from OPEC, evidence of a tightening market has been scant. Inventories have fallen more in harder-to-track areas such as floating storage, and the  high-profile US data has not yet shown a decisive downwards trend. Global demand seasonality is set to add roughly 1.5mbd in 2H17 vs 1H17, while OPEC has now resolved to maintain its cuts through to end-1Q18. In combination, we think this points to a market tightening of c.0.8mbd in 2H, which could remove a material proportion of the global inventory excess by end-year.”

“2018-19 – balanced, with little spare capacity: If OPEC unwinds its cuts in 2Q18, the market looks broadly balanced, with demand growth offset by more OPEC supply, growth in US tight oil and the last of the conventional non-OPEC supply growth from the last spending peak. However, this does not necessarily mean a weak market. At that point, we believe OPEC spare capacity would be extremely limited apart from a potential recovery in supply from the likes of Libya and Nigeria, leaving the global system highly vulnerable to any other unexpected events.”

“Longer term – a tale of two cycles: OPEC’s late-2014 strategy was aimed at allowing prices to fall low enough to re-set global investment and push out higher cost output. The pace of the recovery in US short-cycle shale activity suggests that in that area at least, the impact of OPEC’s actions has been only temporary. The impact on the rest of non-OPEC supply could ultimately be more significant and longer-lasting, from a combination of mature field declines and a dramatic fall in new project sanctions. These effects will take some while to have an impact on global supply/demand balances due to the long-cycle nature of most major projects, but we expect a significant market tightening – and higher prices – towards the end of the decade.”

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BIGGER OIL PRODUCTION CUTS TO CONSIDER IN JULY

Oil markets were subdued on Monday, with Brent struggling to maintain US$50 per barrel as efforts led by Opec to tighten the market were undermined by persistently rising US production.

Brent crude oil futures briefly rose above US$50 per barrel in early trading, but had dipped back to US$49.94 by 0040 GMT.

US West Texas Intermediate futures were at US$47.69 a barrel, weighed down by ongoing climbs in US production.

Investors continue to doubt the ability of Opec to rebalance the oil market, with crude oil prices remaining under pressure amid further signs of rising US oil production.

Saudi's OilMin

The OPEC’s monitoring committee meets in Russia in July

Key Considerations:

Further cuts to oil production output could be needed

OPEC and producers would assess the situation in July

"We have to see the market and it is considered that by the end of June, in July we will see that the action they have taken has a big impact

"If for some reason they need to do more, they will consider doing more including ... bigger cuts."

"Nothing is off the table but today nothing is on the table either.

Current Crude Oil Status:

Currently, Crude Oil is trading at 48.12, up +0.97%, having posted a daily high at 48.12 and low at 47.66.

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