Gold timekeepers new 11-month highs close $ 1328 on N. Korea-drove chance off

Gold fates on Comex expanded its bounce back into a third day today and opened with a bullish hole, hitting the most elevated amounts since October 2016.

Gold: Eyes on $ 1350 

Having topped at eleven-month highest points of $ 1327.72, the yellow metal has entered a period of union, as business sectors keep on seeking security in a definitive place of refuge gold in the midst of heightening North Korean strains, which impelled a crisp hazard avoidance wave over the monetary markets in Asia.

Strains encompassing the Korean landmass escalated, after Japan revealed that North Korea propelled three rockets, of which one of them broke into pieces and fell into the Japanese waters, representing a major risk to Japan.

The spot remains vigorously offer so far this week, as the US dollar drooped in all cases in a state of harmony with the US yields in the midst of blurring Dec rate climb wagers, particularly after the Fed Chair Yellen kept hush on the US money related strategy amid her discourse at the Jackson Hole Symposium last Friday.

In the interim, restoration of worries around the Brexit arrangements, as the UK sets out toward the third round of transactions with the EU, likewise keeps the place of refuge offers for gold to some degree supported.

Looking forward, advancements encompassing North Korea's rocket dispatch will keep on supporting the valuable metal, as consideration turns towards the US business information discharges due in the second 50% of this current week for crisp heading.

Gold Technical Levels

Higher side: 1334.66/81 (classic R1/ Fib R2), 1350/ 1350.50 (psychological levels/Sept 2016 high), 1366 (yearly tops)

Lower side: 1306 (5-DMA), 1299.67 (10-DMA), 1291.37 (20-DMA)

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Gold Prices Vulnerable at Key Chart Support on US PMI Data

Arguments: 

• Gold costs may fall on US PMI, Yellen discourse looked for finish 

• Crude oil costs looking at Chinese vitality exchange figures in the midst of interest stresses 

Gold costs edged lower as a recuperation in chance hunger pushed Treasury security yields higher nearby stock costs. The US Dollar additionally ascended pair as enhancing supposition resounded in a strong move in Fed rate climb desires. As anyone might expect, this undermined the interest of non-enthusiasm bearing and hostile to fiat resources embodied by the yellow metal.

August's US PMI overview gathering is in concentrate on the information front, with the pace of assembling and administration division action development anticipated that would quicken. US monetary news-stream has progressively enhanced with respect to gauges in the course of recent months, opening the entryway for outperformance. While that may hurt gold, finish will probably need to sit tight for Fed Chair Yellen's discourse on Friday.

inconsiderate oil costs slowed down missing an important impetuses. Programming interface said US inventories shed 3.6 million barrels a week ago. That is inside a hair of the 3.3 million barrel drawdown anticipated that would be accounted for in official EIA insights today as was likely perused as existing conditions. Chinese vitality exchange measurements are likewise because of cross the wires. More indications of moderating interest from the world's best oil customer may frighten markets.

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Gold costs remain secured a range underneath resistance in the 1295.46-1300.46 zone (twofold best, 38.2% Fibonacci extension). Negative RSI uniqueness keeps on notice of ebbing upside energy, which may go before a downturn. Breaking beneath 1278.22 (23.6% Fib retracement, drift line) on a day by day shutting premise focuses on the 38.2% level at 1264.23 next. On the other hand, a rupture of resistance uncovered the half extension at 1310.74.

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Crude oil costs are slowing down having discovered help over the $46/barrel figure. From here, an every day close underneath the 38.2% Fibonacci extension at 46.62 opens the entryway for a trial of the half level at 45.46. On the other hand, a push above help turned-resistance at 48.76 (territory floor, drift line) makes ready for retest of the August 1 high at 50.40.

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Gold costs plunge with Jackson Hole national bank sees anticipated

Gold costs fell somewhat in Asia on Monday with the tone from national bank boss meeting in Wyoming this week on pulling back phenomenal money related boost key to the fortunes of the metal.

Gold fates for December conveyance facilitated 0.07% o $1.290.73 on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Coming up this week, speculators will be looking forward to discourses by national investors at the Fed's yearly national bank symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi is key as he has slacked a dialog so far in progress in the US. also, proposed in Japan on the planning and strategies to slow down resource purchasing programs.

Also, U.S. information on lodging and sturdy products to gage how it will affect on Fed approach, while the euro zone is to discharge information on private segment action.

A week ago, gold costs withdrew on Friday in the wake of surging to their most elevated amount in nine months sooner on the back of worries over U.S. political instability and in the midst of place of refuge purchasing in the wake of a fear monger assault in Spain.

The valuable metal turned around course after reports that senior White House consultant Steven Bannon was leaving his post, in what was viewed as a positive for the Trump organization's plan.

Progressing instability over the monetary motivation of U.S. President Donald Trump and questions that the Fed will convey an awful rate climb this year have been factors supporting gold request.

Gold costs have ascended around 11% this year due in expansive part to the weaker dollar.

The dollar surged to 14-year highs after Trump's November race on seeks that his designs after monetary jolt and assessment change would reinforce the economy. The dollar has since surrendered its post-race picks up in the midst of mounting worries about the organization's capacity to convey on its plan.

A weaker U.S. cash makes the dollar-named metal less expensive for remote purchases.

Gold costs transcended the $1,300 level before Friday, a key mental hindrance for some speculators after a psychological militant assault killed no less than 13 individuals in Barcelona.

Somewhere else in valuable metals exchanging, silver was at $16.98 a troy ounce late Friday, while platinum settled at $981.75 and palladium slid 0.14% to $924.85 a troy ounce.

Among base metals, copper finished at $2.94 a pound, subsequent to shutting at the most abnormal amount since November 2014 on Wednesday in the midst of desires that continuous request from China will keep on supporting costs.

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Oil costs steady as solid request meets progressing supply overabundance

Oil costs were steady on Tuesday, upheld by solid utilization yet weighed by continuous high supplies from maker club OPEC and furthermore the United States.

Brent unrefined fates LCOc1 , the worldwide benchmark at oil costs, were at $48.55 per barrel at 0130 GMT, up 13 pennies, or 0.3 percent, from their last close.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) unrefined prospects CLc1 were at $46.12 per barrel, up 10 pennies, or 0.2 percent.

In an indication of the solid request, information on Monday demonstrated refineries in China expanded rough throughput in June to the second most elevated on record. this, oil markets have battled with oversupply since 2014, bringing about a more than 50 percent fall in costs from that point forward.

An arrangement by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries with Russia and other non-OPEC makers to cut supplies by around 1.8 million barrels for every day (bpd) between January this year and March 2018 has so far not prompted the more tightly showcase and higher costs that makers have sought after.

That is on account of provisions from inside OPEC stay high to a great extent because of rising yield from Nigeria and Libya, two OPEC states absolved from the settlement and expanding U.S. generation.

Ecuador, a little maker inside OPEC, likewise said on Tuesday that it is not agreeing to its creation sliced of 26,000 bpd because of the nation's financial shortfall which is relied upon to hit 7.5 percent of GDP this year.

Oil Minister Carlos Perez said that Ecuador was just cutting about 60 percent of that figure, putting current yield at 545,000 bpd.

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Gold Prices Rebound From Key Support As Yellen Softens Rate Expectations

Gold costs bounced back this week with the valuable metal revitalizing 1.33% to exchange at 1228 in front of the New York close on Friday. The progress has been upheld by proceeded with the shortcoming in the greenback with the DXY down over 0.7%.

The June Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Retail Sales figures came in short of agreement appraises on Friday, energizing another auction in the dollar. The information returns on the of the current week's semi-yearly Humphrey Hawkins declaration before congress where Fed Chair Janet Yellen refered to a more hesitant attitude toward fiscal strategy. The advisory group judged that "on the grounds that the unbiased rate is presently very low by verifiable benchmarks, the government reserves rate would not need to rise all that significantly further to get to a nonpartisan approach position." in the meantime, Yellen invited additionally facilitating measures should economic situations weaken.

The critique recommends that while the Fed sees the economy gathering pace, Yellen and Co might be worried that the national bank will do not have the ammo to react to another emergency given the present arrangement position moving the concentration to the asset report off-stack. Thusly, markets have seen a slight re-estimating in desires for a December climb with Fed Fund Futures now valuing a 39% probability for a 25bps increment in the benchmark loan fee. U.S. information is light one week from now and at gold costs, the attention stays on the sharp inversion seen for this present week off help.

• A synopsis of IG Client Sentimentshows brokers are net-long Gold - the proportion remains at +4.55 (82.0% of merchants are long)- bearishreading 

• Long positions are 0.4% higher than yesterday however 5.6% lower from a week ago

• Short positions are 4.7% higher than yesterday and 5.2% higher from a week ago

• While more extensive retail assessment keeps on pointing lower, situating is less net-long than yesterday and contrasted and last week.The late changes in notion caution that the present value pattern may soon turn around higher regardless of the reality brokers stay net-long. All things considered, I would be searching for help on a pullback in cost. 

A week ago we noticed that, "the break underneath essential trendline bolster stretching out off the late-January lows moves the medium-term center lower in gold costs with the decrease now testing introductory help at the conjunction of the half retracement and the late-February low-day/low-week close at 1204/09." That help zone held into the begin of the week with beginning week by week resistance seen around ~1240. A rupture above parallel resistance reaching out off the 2016 highs would be expected to check resumption of the more extensive uptrend.

"Day by day resistance remains with the 50-line/200-day moving normal/June 26th swing low at 1232/35." We're trying that level into the end of the week with a break here focusing on the month to month open (1241) sponsored by the upper middle line parallel/100-day moving normal at ~1247. More extensive bearish refutation remains at 1258.

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Crude Oil Prices Hike Despite Oversupply Worries, US CPI on Tap

Ideas:

• Raw petroleum costs bob even as IEA stresses so anyone can hear over market excess 
• Gold costs may ascend as delicate US CPI keeps on cooling Fed rate climb wagers 
• Where will gold and raw petroleum go in the second from last quarter? See our gauges 

Unrefined petroleum costs turned higher even as the IEA cautioned that worldwide market rebalancing has turned out to be less sure. The office referred to expanding OPEC yield in spite of a cartel-drove generation cut exertion even as additionally swing supply – especially from the US – comes on the web. This has wrecked endeavors to deplete bloated stockpiles.

Apparently strange value activity may reflect remedial streams activated by the entry of the last piece of real occasion chance for the week. The Baker Hughes fix tally report is on tap yet this seldom creates a critical reaction. In fact, the WTI benchmark's normal move in the 30 minutes after the week after week discharge is a simple 0.03 percent.

The thump on the effect of US Dollar instability may rise as an impetus into the weekend as June's CPI information is discharged. The report is required to demonstrate that year-on-year expansion eased back to 1.7 percent, denoting the fourth continuous month of deceleration and the weakest perusing since November 2016. A delicate print may cool Fed rate climb wagers, pushing the cash lower.

A huge opposite relationship between's the greenback and the WTI contract has been modified as of late and now remains at - 0.78 on moving 20-day contemplates, the most astounding since March 2016. This clues a weaker US cash may resound as higher oil costs. The reaction from gold costs is probably going to be much more straightforwardly positive in this situation as a hesitant approach see helps the interest of hostile to fiat resources.

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 

Gold costs wavered in front of channel resistance controlling the down move since early June. Close term bolster is at 1212.48, the 14.6% Fibonacci extension, with a break underneath that on a day by day shutting premise focusing on the 23.6% level at 1204.28. On the other hand, a push over the channel top and the 23.6%Fib retracementat 1226.26 uncovered the 38.2% edge at 1239.60.

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 

Crude oil costs are endeavoring to reconstruct upside force subsequent to holding up on a retest of help at 45.32. From here, a day by day close over the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 47.10 uncovered the half level at 48.65. On the other hand, a turn underneath 45.32 sees the following layer of help at 43.79, the May 5 low.

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Look Who's The World's Best Crude Oil Trader In June

As per the most recent China Customs information, China imported 36.11 million tons, or 8.79 million barrels for each day (bpd) of raw petroleum in June, making it the best ware purchaser on the planet for the second in a row month in June, as revealed by Reuters.

For the initial six months of 2017, China sent in 212 million tons of rough, or 8.55 million barrels for every day (bpd), up 13.8% on a similar period in 2016, Customs information appeared.

Markets refer to solid interest for the dark gold from China is essentially determined by bringing down oil costs.

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Unrefined Crude Oil Prices Eye Inventory Data,Yellen May Drive Gold Lower

Arguments: 

1.Unrefined petroleum costs ascend as EIA trims US yield wager, API reports vast stock drop
2.Gold costs edge higher before Yellen discourse may withdraw on hawkish editorial
3.What will drive unrefined petroleum and gold patterns in the following 3 months?

Raw petroleum costs endured intraday in the midst of reports that Saudi Arabia ruptured the yield share it consented to as a major aspect of the OPEC-drove creation cut exertion. The move immediately failed however as the business sectors propped for the arrival of and refreshed EIA here and now vitality viewpoint and API stock stream insights.

The wary tone demonstrated farsighted. The EIA downsized its estimate for US creation and API said inventories lost 8.13 million barrels a week ago, a drawdown well in the overabundance of 2.26 million outpouring expected by financial specialists. The WTI benchmark reacted with the biggest day by day pick up in two weeks.

From here, official DOE stock figures and in addition the OPEC month to month report are on tap. The World Petroleum Congress occurring in Istanbul may likewise create showcase moving discourse, particularly if the cartel-drove gathering of best makers indicate they are interested in diminishing yield further.

Gold costs rectified higher in front of two days of tremendously expected Congressional declaration from Fed Chair Janet Yellen. Her comments may demonstrate conclusive in shutting the hole between the national bank's arrangement desires and those of the business sectors.

The rate-setting FOMC board of trustees imagines one more rate climb this year. Financial specialists are questionable, putting the shot of another expansion in 2017 at only 48 percent. Much this suspicion appears to be founded on as of late softening expansion, which the Fed keeps up is transitory.

Late financial information proposes there is some legitimacy to the Fed's contention. On account of that, Yellen may utilize the declaration to put forth her defense for additionally fixing. On the off chance that she is adequately persuading, a hawkish move in the business sectors' standard viewpoint is probably going to push gold costs lower.

Need assistance transforming products news into a noteworthy system? Look at our exchanging guide.

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS –

 Gold costs are endeavoring a bounce back in the wake of testing the drop limit of the down pattern in play since early June. A day by day close over the 14.6% Fibonacci retracement at 1218.04 focuses on the 23.6% level at 1226.26. On the other hand, an inversion underneath the 23.6% Fib development at 1210.86 uncovered the 38.2% limit at 1199.41.

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS –

 Crude oil costs have recovered a toehold over the diagram intonation point at 45.32, opening the entryway for another trial of the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 47.10. On the other hand, a move back underneath 45.32 – now recast as help at the end of the day – uncovered the May 5 low at 43.79.

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MIXED SENTIMENTS ON CRUDE OIL AND GOLD

Commodities were mixed in the previous session, with oil prices higher, base metals mixed and gold largely unchanged.

Key Considerations:

“Oil prices were stronger, with WTI rising above USD44/bbl. The market was encouraged by the potential for production caps from Libya and Nigeria. News that a 24 July meeting in Russia to discuss the oil market situation will include the two African producers was greeted with enthusiasm, given their recent expansion in output.”

 “Gold prices were broadly unchanged after Friday’s strong US payrolls number sparked a selloff in the precious metals sector.”

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WHAT WILL DRIVE CRUDE OIL AND GOLD TRENDS?

Key Considerations:

• Crude oil prices looking to World Petroleum Congress for a lifeline
• Gold prices may fall further Treasury bond yields rise in risk-on trade
• What will drive Q3 crude oil and gold trends? 

Crude oil continued to sink despite a larger-than-expected weekly US inventory drawdown as output continued to surpass outflows. The EIA reported that US production rose to 9.34 million barrels per day last week, marking the biggest increase since January.

From here, the spotlight turns to the World Petroleum Congress getting underway in Istanbul, Turkey. Sideline comments from a formidable roundup of industry bigwigs may prove market-moving if OPEC officials and their allies sound off on deeper output cut possibilities.

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Crude oil prices fell for a third consecutive day, with sellers now testing support in the 43.51-79 area (38.2% Fibonacciexpansion, May 5 low). A daily close below that opens the door for a retest of the 42.08-35 region (June 21 low, 50% Fib). Alternatively, a move above the 44.96-45.32 zone (former support, 23.6% expansion) targets resistance in the 47.03-12 range.

Gold prices plunged as the US Dollar rose following the release of better-than-expected US labor-market data. The figures lent credence to the Fed’s hawkish posture, undermining support for anti-fiat and non-interest-bearing assets including the yellow metal.

Looking ahead, a lull in top-tier event risk may put sentiment trends at the forefront. S&P 500 futures are pointing higher, hinting that the upbeat mood on Asian bourses is aiming to carry onward. That may nudge bond yields higher, pushing gold lower still.

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 

Gold prices broke below the May 9 lowat 1214.40, paving the way for a challenge of the 1195.13-99.67 area (March 10 low, 38.2% Fibonacci expansion). A break of this barrier confirmed on a daily closing basis exposes the 50% level at 1169.89. Alternatively, a move back above 1214.14 – now recast as resistance – targets the 23.6% level at 1236.51.

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GOLD MARKET OUTLOOK FOR UPCOMING WEEK

Gold markets initially tried to rally during the day after the jobs number came out stronger than anticipated, but then turned around to fall through the floor again. Now that we are below the $1220 level, and even the $1215 level, looks as if the gold markets will continue to fall. With interest rates set to go higher in the United States and other central bank’s around the world, this will of course continue to weigh upon the value of gold in general. The market is going to reach towards the $1200 level underneath, where it will find a certain amount of support. However, if we break down below there, the market should then continue to go to the $1000 level longer term.

Key Considerations:

It is believed that selling rallies will continue to be the best way to deal with the gold markets, especially with the $1230 level looking so resistive. As soon as we get some type of exhaustive candle, it’s time to start selling yet again. A breakdown below the $1200 level is not only a negative sign, but we should pylon into the short positions. There is no interest in buying gold, unless of course there is some type of major geopolitical issue, such as North Korea flaring up, but less something like that happen, is very likely that strength will be sold going forward as interest rates offer a safer return in the bond markets and other financial instruments. While there is a place for gold in everyone’s portfolio, It’s not believed that buying in this environment is very prudent, but recognized that the $1000 level below is a massive area on the multi-year charts. Selling seems to be the only thing to do.

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GOLD UNDER PRESSURE DUE TO RISING GLOBAL BOND YIELD ENVIRONMENT

The rising global bond yield environment is keeping gold under pressure; however, the losses are being capped at the weekly 50-MA level of $1218.50 ahead of the US NFP release. 

Eyes US data

The US economy is expected to have added 179K jobs in June compared to 138K jobs in May. US average hourly earnings (due at 12:30 GMT) are seen rising 0.3% m/m in June, compared to 0.2% growth seen in May

A strong wage growth figures could yield another leg higher in the treasury yields and weigh over gold. Note that the metal is oversold as per the RSI on the daily chart, thus weak wage growth numbers could see the metal jump back above the 200-DMA level of $1231 levels. 

Gold Technical Levels

As of writing, the metal trades at $1120/Oz. A break below $1218.50 (weekly 50-MA) would open up downside towards $1214.40 (May low) and $1211.73 (Nov 11 low). On the other hand, breach of $1223.50 (5-DMA) would open doors for $1226 (1-hour 50-MA) and $1229.37 (resistance on 1-hour chart). 

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WILL GOLD REACH 1,229.35 AS IT’S ON RECOVERY MODE?

Gold prices on Comex keep the recovery mode intact for the third straight session, although the struggle continues with $ 1230 barrier, despite widespread risk-aversion and a non-event FOMC minutes release.

Gold regains 200-DMA at $ 1225.42

Escalating geo-political tensions surrounding the North Korean missile launch, puts China and Russia against the US, which has weighed down heavily on the investors’ sentiment, keeping the safe-haven bids for the yellow metal underpinned.

Moreover, gold also benefited overnight, as the FOMC minutes lacked any hawkish bias, with the Fed officials divided on when to start the balance sheet normalization process and on a Dec rate hike. The Fed members also expressed their concerns on softening inflation outlook.

Meanwhile, the bulls need a decisive break above $ 1230 barrier for the ongoing recovery to extend further, and hence, traders await the US ADP jobs report and ISM services PMI data for the next near-term direction.

Gold: Technical levels

Higher Side: 1230 (round figure), 1237.25 (10-DMA), 1245.80 (20-DMA)

Lower Side: 1223.37 (daily low), 1216.50 (multi-week troughs), 1210 (key support)

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OPEC’S TOTAL OIL EXPORTS STOOD AT 25.187

OPEC’s total oil exports stood at 25.187 million barrels per day (bpd), down from 25.424 million bpd in May, and down from 25.493 million bpd in October 2016.  The decline in exports was driven by UAE, Algeria, Kuwait and Iran. 

Saudi Arabia exports jumped by 657,000 bpd compared to May, and stood at 7.205 million bpd.

Crude Oil Price Status:

Currently, Crude Oil is trading at 46.98, down -0.19%, having posted a daily high at 47.32 and low at 46.74.

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OPEC PRODUCERS BOOSTED THEIR OUTPUT BY 260,000 BPD

According to a Bloomberg News survey of analysts, oil companies and ship-tracking data, the OPEC producers boosted their output by 260,000 bpd, when compared with May.

Key findings from the survey:

Half the increase came from Libya and Nigeria, which are exempt from the OPEC and non-OPEC output cut deal.

OPEC’s biggest producer Saudi Arabia increased output by 90,000 barrels a day in June, while Angola and the UAE both lifted production by 40,000 barrels a day from May.

The addition of Equatorial Guinea’s 150,000 barrels a day of output increased the cartel’s total June production to 32.55 million barrels a day.

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THE NET BULLISH BETS FOR CRUDE OIL ARE REDUCED FOR THE THIRD CONSECUTIVE WEEK

The data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday showed the speculators reduced the net bullish bets for the third consecutive week. 

The non-commercial futures contracts of WTI Crude Oil futures saw a weekly reduction of -1,576 contracts to total 328,764 net contracts. The overall position has now fallen to the lowest standing since November 29th.

Oil benchmarks - WTI and Brent - suffered more than 14% drop in the first half; the biggest fall since 1998. Brent and WTI fell about 19% in the first half of 1998. 

Current Crude Oil Status:

Currently, Crude Oil is trading at 46.19, up + 0.33%, having posted a daily high at 46.38 and low at 46.15.

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GOLD RECOVERY FACES UPSIDE TEST FROM HIGHER YIELDS

Outlook on gold prices, in the wake of the latest USD downward spiral and higher Treasury yields.

Key Quotes:

“Gold recovery faces upside test from higher yields

While Mr. Draghi's comments may have been misinterpreted as to the extent or timing of tapering or rate increases, the stronger EUR did help lift gold.

The whipsaw action in the financial markets after ECB officials rushed to clarify Mr. Draghi's comments shows how sensitive monetary officials are to what they may view as overreactions in the financial markets.

Still further EUR gains versus the USD would likely support gold and HSBC forex strategists remain generally bearish on the USD versus the EUR as well against most other currencies.

Gradual USD weakness will likely bolster gold.

Higher yields will constrain further gold gains and while the gold rally has recently come under pressure, we certainty do not believe it is reversed.”

Current Gold Status:

Currently, Gold is trading at 1,246.52, up +0.08%, having posted a daily high at 1,248.29 and low at 1,243.89.

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OIL PRICES ARE ON THE RISE FOR THE SIXTH STRAIGHT DAY

Oil prices are on the rise for the sixth straight day as the drop in the US output provided much needed momentum for the technical correction set in motion by the oversold technical conditions. 

At the time of writing, Brent front month contract was up 25 cents or 0.53% at $47.80/barrel. WTI was up 21 cents or 0.47% at $44.95/barrel. 

The technical correction gathered pace on Wednesday after the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) data showed the gasoline inventories fell 894K last week. The US oil production fell 100K barrels to 9.3 million barrels per day. This was the biggest decline since July 2016. 

The drop in the US gasoline inventories and weekly oil production overshadowed the inventory data which showed a buildup of 2.6 million barrels. 

The three-day decline in the USD index from 97.16 to 95.51 is also keeping the oil benchmarks well bid this Thursday morning in Asia. 

Crude Oil Current Status:

Currently, Crude Oil is trading at 44.94, up +0.45%, having posted a daily high at 45.03 and low at 44.75.

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WTI TAKES ON THE RECOVERY ABOVE $ 44

Oil futures on NYMEX paused its four-day bullish run on Wednesday, as the sentiment remains undermined by bearish API crude inventory report. However, the commodity is on a minor-recovery mode so far this session, looking to regain the bids above $ 44 mark.

The tepid recovery seen in the black gold can be mainly attributed to the renewed selling pressure seen in the US dollar versus its major peers, with the DXY hitting fresh seven-month lows just ahead of 96 handle.

Oil prices witnessed a sharp drop in the overnight trades after the API crude inventory report showed that the US inventories rose by 851,000 barrels in the week to June 23 to 509.5 million, compared with expectations for a decrease of 2.6 million barrels. Unexpected build in the US crude reserves re-ignited supply glut concerns.

All eyes now remains on the official US government oil reserves data due later today on Wednesday for fresh trading impetus. At the time of writing, WTI trades -0.35% lower at $ 44.11, while Brent trades modestly flat at 46.84 levels.

WTI technical levels 

We can expect start of downtrend from resistance level 44.45 - 44.90 with target on support 42.50 and lower, on 41.30 - 38.00. The uptrend may be expected to continue in case the market rises above resistance level 44.90, which will be followed by reaching resistance level 46.20.

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CRUDE OIL ROSE FOR A FOURTH CONSECUTIVE SESSION ON TUESDAY

Crude oil futures rose for a fourth consecutive session on Tuesday as investors covered short positions, though worries over a festering supply glut kept a lid on prices.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures (CLc1) were up 12 cents, or 0.3 percent, at $43.50 per barrel by 0323 GMT. Brent crude futures (LCOc1) gained 14 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $45.97 per barrel.

The market is up slightly so far this week after dropping for the past five weeks.

"The market has fallen a lot as the news has been bad pretty consistently for the oil market," said Ric Spooner, chief market analyst at CMC Markets in Sydney.

"It has moved a long way in response to that news. Maybe we are getting to a point that there is upside risk to any good news?"

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its partners have been trying to reduce a global crude glut with production cuts. OPEC states and 11 other exporters agreed in May to extend cuts of 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) until March.

However, Nigeria and Libya, OPEC members exempt from the cuts, have raised output.

Iran was allowed a small increase to recover market share lost under Western sanctions over its nuclear programme. It said its production has surpassed 3.8 million bpd and is expected to reach 4 million bpd by March.

And U.S. shale oil output has risen around 10 percent since last year, with the number of U.S. oil rigs in operation at the highest in more than three years.

Hedge funds and other money managers appear to have abandoned all hope that OPEC will rebalance the oil market, slashing formerly bullish bets on crude futures and options, John Kemp, a Reuters market analyst wrote in a column.

"Exchange data showed that speculators had cut their net long positions in WTI and Brent to (the) lowest level in 10 months last week," ANZ said in a note.

"Traders are also looking ahead to the EIA Energy Conference in Washington, where U.S. shale oil producers are expected to give their view of current market conditions."

Analysts at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch said demand had not grown quickly enough to absorb excess output.

As the global oil market frets about a stubborn supply glut, faltering demand growth in key Asian crude importers is further hampering efforts to restore market balance.

A fuel glut in China, a hangover from demonetisation in India, and an ageing, declining population in Japan are holding back crude oil demand growth in three of the world's top four oil buyers.

Crude Oil Current Price:

Currently, Crude Oil is trading at 43.50, up + 0.28%, having posted a daily high at 43.56 and low at 43.32.

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