Gold Prices Rebound From Key Support As Yellen Softens Rate Expectations

Gold costs bounced back this week with the valuable metal revitalizing 1.33% to exchange at 1228 in front of the New York close on Friday. The progress has been upheld by proceeded with the shortcoming in the greenback with the DXY down over 0.7%.

The June Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Retail Sales figures came in short of agreement appraises on Friday, energizing another auction in the dollar. The information returns on the of the current week's semi-yearly Humphrey Hawkins declaration before congress where Fed Chair Janet Yellen refered to a more hesitant attitude toward fiscal strategy. The advisory group judged that "on the grounds that the unbiased rate is presently very low by verifiable benchmarks, the government reserves rate would not need to rise all that significantly further to get to a nonpartisan approach position." in the meantime, Yellen invited additionally facilitating measures should economic situations weaken.

The critique recommends that while the Fed sees the economy gathering pace, Yellen and Co might be worried that the national bank will do not have the ammo to react to another emergency given the present arrangement position moving the concentration to the asset report off-stack. Thusly, markets have seen a slight re-estimating in desires for a December climb with Fed Fund Futures now valuing a 39% probability for a 25bps increment in the benchmark loan fee. U.S. information is light one week from now and at gold costs, the attention stays on the sharp inversion seen for this present week off help.

• A synopsis of IG Client Sentimentshows brokers are net-long Gold - the proportion remains at +4.55 (82.0% of merchants are long)- bearishreading 

• Long positions are 0.4% higher than yesterday however 5.6% lower from a week ago

• Short positions are 4.7% higher than yesterday and 5.2% higher from a week ago

• While more extensive retail assessment keeps on pointing lower, situating is less net-long than yesterday and contrasted and last week.The late changes in notion caution that the present value pattern may soon turn around higher regardless of the reality brokers stay net-long. All things considered, I would be searching for help on a pullback in cost. 

A week ago we noticed that, "the break underneath essential trendline bolster stretching out off the late-January lows moves the medium-term center lower in gold costs with the decrease now testing introductory help at the conjunction of the half retracement and the late-February low-day/low-week close at 1204/09." That help zone held into the begin of the week with beginning week by week resistance seen around ~1240. A rupture above parallel resistance reaching out off the 2016 highs would be expected to check resumption of the more extensive uptrend.

"Day by day resistance remains with the 50-line/200-day moving normal/June 26th swing low at 1232/35." We're trying that level into the end of the week with a break here focusing on the month to month open (1241) sponsored by the upper middle line parallel/100-day moving normal at ~1247. More extensive bearish refutation remains at 1258.

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Look Who's The World's Best Crude Oil Trader In June

As per the most recent China Customs information, China imported 36.11 million tons, or 8.79 million barrels for each day (bpd) of raw petroleum in June, making it the best ware purchaser on the planet for the second in a row month in June, as revealed by Reuters.

For the initial six months of 2017, China sent in 212 million tons of rough, or 8.55 million barrels for every day (bpd), up 13.8% on a similar period in 2016, Customs information appeared.

Markets refer to solid interest for the dark gold from China is essentially determined by bringing down oil costs.

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Unrefined Crude Oil Prices Eye Inventory Data,Yellen May Drive Gold Lower

Arguments: 

1.Unrefined petroleum costs ascend as EIA trims US yield wager, API reports vast stock drop
2.Gold costs edge higher before Yellen discourse may withdraw on hawkish editorial
3.What will drive unrefined petroleum and gold patterns in the following 3 months?

Raw petroleum costs endured intraday in the midst of reports that Saudi Arabia ruptured the yield share it consented to as a major aspect of the OPEC-drove creation cut exertion. The move immediately failed however as the business sectors propped for the arrival of and refreshed EIA here and now vitality viewpoint and API stock stream insights.

The wary tone demonstrated farsighted. The EIA downsized its estimate for US creation and API said inventories lost 8.13 million barrels a week ago, a drawdown well in the overabundance of 2.26 million outpouring expected by financial specialists. The WTI benchmark reacted with the biggest day by day pick up in two weeks.

From here, official DOE stock figures and in addition the OPEC month to month report are on tap. The World Petroleum Congress occurring in Istanbul may likewise create showcase moving discourse, particularly if the cartel-drove gathering of best makers indicate they are interested in diminishing yield further.

Gold costs rectified higher in front of two days of tremendously expected Congressional declaration from Fed Chair Janet Yellen. Her comments may demonstrate conclusive in shutting the hole between the national bank's arrangement desires and those of the business sectors.

The rate-setting FOMC board of trustees imagines one more rate climb this year. Financial specialists are questionable, putting the shot of another expansion in 2017 at only 48 percent. Much this suspicion appears to be founded on as of late softening expansion, which the Fed keeps up is transitory.

Late financial information proposes there is some legitimacy to the Fed's contention. On account of that, Yellen may utilize the declaration to put forth her defense for additionally fixing. On the off chance that she is adequately persuading, a hawkish move in the business sectors' standard viewpoint is probably going to push gold costs lower.

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GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS –

 Gold costs are endeavoring a bounce back in the wake of testing the drop limit of the down pattern in play since early June. A day by day close over the 14.6% Fibonacci retracement at 1218.04 focuses on the 23.6% level at 1226.26. On the other hand, an inversion underneath the 23.6% Fib development at 1210.86 uncovered the 38.2% limit at 1199.41.

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS –

 Crude oil costs have recovered a toehold over the diagram intonation point at 45.32, opening the entryway for another trial of the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 47.10. On the other hand, a move back underneath 45.32 – now recast as help at the end of the day – uncovered the May 5 low at 43.79.

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MIXED SENTIMENTS ON CRUDE OIL AND GOLD

Commodities were mixed in the previous session, with oil prices higher, base metals mixed and gold largely unchanged.

Key Considerations:

“Oil prices were stronger, with WTI rising above USD44/bbl. The market was encouraged by the potential for production caps from Libya and Nigeria. News that a 24 July meeting in Russia to discuss the oil market situation will include the two African producers was greeted with enthusiasm, given their recent expansion in output.”

 “Gold prices were broadly unchanged after Friday’s strong US payrolls number sparked a selloff in the precious metals sector.”

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WHAT WILL DRIVE CRUDE OIL AND GOLD TRENDS?

Key Considerations:

• Crude oil prices looking to World Petroleum Congress for a lifeline
• Gold prices may fall further Treasury bond yields rise in risk-on trade
• What will drive Q3 crude oil and gold trends? 

Crude oil continued to sink despite a larger-than-expected weekly US inventory drawdown as output continued to surpass outflows. The EIA reported that US production rose to 9.34 million barrels per day last week, marking the biggest increase since January.

From here, the spotlight turns to the World Petroleum Congress getting underway in Istanbul, Turkey. Sideline comments from a formidable roundup of industry bigwigs may prove market-moving if OPEC officials and their allies sound off on deeper output cut possibilities.

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Crude oil prices fell for a third consecutive day, with sellers now testing support in the 43.51-79 area (38.2% Fibonacciexpansion, May 5 low). A daily close below that opens the door for a retest of the 42.08-35 region (June 21 low, 50% Fib). Alternatively, a move above the 44.96-45.32 zone (former support, 23.6% expansion) targets resistance in the 47.03-12 range.

Gold prices plunged as the US Dollar rose following the release of better-than-expected US labor-market data. The figures lent credence to the Fed’s hawkish posture, undermining support for anti-fiat and non-interest-bearing assets including the yellow metal.

Looking ahead, a lull in top-tier event risk may put sentiment trends at the forefront. S&P 500 futures are pointing higher, hinting that the upbeat mood on Asian bourses is aiming to carry onward. That may nudge bond yields higher, pushing gold lower still.

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 

Gold prices broke below the May 9 lowat 1214.40, paving the way for a challenge of the 1195.13-99.67 area (March 10 low, 38.2% Fibonacci expansion). A break of this barrier confirmed on a daily closing basis exposes the 50% level at 1169.89. Alternatively, a move back above 1214.14 – now recast as resistance – targets the 23.6% level at 1236.51.

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OIL AND GOLD PRICES UNDER PRESSURE

Oil prices remain under pressure as OPEC’s efforts to curb supply, and rebalance the market, continue to be challenged by other sources of supply, according to the analysis team at ANZ.

Current Crude Oil Price:

Currently, Crude Oil is trading at 44.22, up +0.05, having posted a daily high at 44.33 and low at 44.33.

Key Quotes

“Output from Libya is rising following the deal with Wintershall that has enabled at least two fields to restart operations and sees output from Libya at four year highs. Meanwhile, US shale gas producers increased the number of rigs again last the week, the 22nd week in a row. The number of wells at the end of the May was the highest in over three years.”

“Base metals were generally higher, with solid increases across the complex. News that Chinese regulators will ease restrictions on institutions regarding investments in commodities provided a positive tone. Copper inventories at Shanghai bonded warehouses fell at an accelerated pace in the first two weeks of June. Iron ore prices continue to inch higher.”

“Gold prices pared gains as markets looked toward further Fed rate hikes and, at some point, a move to tighten conditions by the ECB. Other precious metals prices were also lower overnight. Investors in exchange traded funds continue to cut positions.”

Current Gold Price:

Currently, Gold is trading at 1,245.50, up +0.13%, having posted a daily high at 1,246.00 and low at 1,242.95.

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OIL BOUNCES AS PRECIOUS METALS CONTINUE THEIR BULLISH TREND

Oil bounces along the seafloor bottom overnight as precious metals continue their bullish unwind from earlier in the week, ignoring an emotional U.K. election.

Crude Oil

Both Brent and WTI closed almost unchanged overnight despite both attempting a failed dead cat bounce in the New York session leaving the crude contracts down some 5.0% for the week. Following the king hit from the Crude Inventories number Thursday morning (Singapore time), both contracts have a suspiciously consolidative look about them before more downside as we run into the week’s end.

The Baker Hughes Rig Count this evening is unlikely to provide much respite either, and oil will probably have to rely on a weaker U.S. dollar or some headline-driven volatility to pick itself up off the floor.

Brent spot trades at 47.45 in early Asia with resistance at 48.50 and then 50.00. Support is very near at 47.40 with the next level below this the May liquidation low at 46.30.

WTI spot trades at 45.30 with resistance at 46.50 and then 48.20. Support again is very near at 45.00 with a break potentially targeting its May low of 43.50.

Precious Metals

Gold clung on to its uptrend overnight by the skin of its teeth, just managing to hold recent trend line support, this morning at 1274.30. A flat stock market in the U.S. and no new bombshells from ex-FBI Director Comey in Congress seems to have unwound some of the safe haven premia from gold in the last 24 hours.

Looking at gold’s price action, the gold price may well have had a significant amount of uncertainty built into it over the week which was given a further boost by a weaker U.S. Dollar initially. Traders may also have taken fright by the failure of gold to breach its April high of 1296.00 this week leaving a technically significant double top now at this level on the charts.

Ahead of the weekend, it would not be surprising to see Asia hedge some weekend risk and for buying to emerge in the session. However, gold may take its cue from Silver as it did yesterday, with the later breaking critical support at 17.5000 overnight which also took out it’s 100 and 200-day moving averages. If silver continues to drop to its next support near 17.2000, this may be the straw that breaks gold’s back.

This morning Gold trades at 1279.50 with resistance at 1289.00 followed by 1296.00 and then 1300.00, implying the yellow metal has a lot of wood to chop from a technical standpoint. Support is nearby at the 1274.30 level as mentioned above followed by 1270.00 with a break of this level implying a possible move to 1259.00.

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COMMODITIES MARKET DAILY BRIEFING

Commodity markets were mixed overnight while gold prices eased as the USD firmed amid mounting expectations of a rate hike in June by the Fed, while reports that OPEC will likely announce an extension to its production curbs when it meets later this week. 

Crude Oil:

Oil prices on both sides of the Atlantic trade close to 5-week high after the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a drop in oil, gasoline and distillate inventories. 

The API said the US oil inventories fell 1.5 million barrels in the week ended May 19, compared to the expectation of 2.3 million draw. The actual figure is less than estimates, however, what boosted oil prices was the accompanying drop in the gasoline, distillates, and oil at the Cushing, Oklahoma facility. Gasoline inventories fell by a sizable 3.15 million barrels.

Oil also remains bid on expectations that OPEC would extend the output cut agreement by 9 months. Report hit the wires yesterday that the Cartel is also considering an extension of 12 months. 

Currently, Crude Oil is trading at 51.52, up +0.10%, having posted a daily high at 51.67 and low at 51.40.

Gold:

Gold eased as the USD bounced off recent lows as expectations about a Fed tightening firmed. Palladium posted a solid rise supported by buoyant expectations of car sales.

Currently, Gold is trading at 1,251.86, up +0.05%, having posted a daily high at 1,253.88 and low at 1,250.34.

A break below $1245.36 (38.2% Fib R of Apr high - May low) could yield a sell-off to $1239.88 (Mar 31 low) and $1233.53 (23.6% Fib R of Apr high - May low). On the other hand, a break above $1253 (50-DMA) would open up upside towards $1264.50 (61.8% Fib R of Apr high - May low) and $1270.94 (Apr 7 high). 

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COMMODITY MARKETS RALLY WITH US POLITICAL TURMOIL REIGNITE

Commodity markets rallied across the board because the political turmoil inside the US reignited, sparking a weaker USD, which helped in growing investor appetite in commodities.

KEY COMMODITY MARKET CONSIDERATIONS

Crude Oil:

Crude oil rates persisted to trend higher as the market turns into an increasingly confident that OPEC members will commit to a rollover in the production cut agreement. Azerbaijan joined the refrain of requires an extension; but it favors continuing to the cease of 2017 (instead of Q1 2018). Charges have been also supported with the aid of the broad weak point in the USD. Sentiment was also buoyed via signs of strong demand.

Qatari oil minister Mohammad al-Sada joined a growing number of major oil producers calling for an extension to the OPEC and non-OPEC output cut deal to the end of March 2018, Platts reports.

According to him, after nearly three years of buildup in oil stocks, the process of rebalancing was "finally gaining momentum"

"We are optimistic that the extension of the agreement to the second half of this year will improve market stability, due to the higher expected demand in Q3 and Q4. This is further supported by the fact that the world economic situation is progressively improving" 

"We also see merits of extending the agreement further to the first quarter of 2018, when demand is seasonally lower"

Current Crude Oil Status:

Currently, Crude Oil is trading at 50.73, up + 0.79%, having posted a daily high at 50.89 and low at 50.58.

Gold:

Gold continues to be supported by US political turmoil, with prices threatening to break through USD1260/oz.

US long-term inflation expectations as represented by the 10-year breakeven inflation rate are a big driver of gold prices. The metal being a hedge for inflation usually tracks inflation expectations higher/lower.

The 10-year breakeven inflation rate; the yield difference between 10-year Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) and regular 10-year Treasury notes; dropped to 1.78% last week; the lowest level since November 10.

However, gold remained well bid on rising political tensions in the US. Moreover, the metal has rallied from $1222 (May 10 low) to $1264 (last week’s high) mainly due to the turmoil in Washington.

It also means that once the political uncertainty dissipates, the risk premium would evaporate and the metal would fall back in line with the weakening inflation expectations.

Current Gold Status:

Currently, Gold is trading at 1,253.16, down -0.22%, having posted a daily high at 1,257.79 and low at 1,251.85.

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COMMODITY MARKET UPDATES OF THE DAY

Talking Points Of Commodity Market:

• Commodities’ prices are likely to get affected by Fed rate hikes and Chinese demand growth over the coming year.
• Commodities to perform well over coming year as Fed hikes rates, at full employment, inflation moving toward its 2% target
• Growth in Chinese demand for industrial metals likely to be muted

GOLD

Gold’s nascent rally petered out overnight, and gold fell to open in Asian trading around 1227.50. Yesterday’s post Macron victory commodity and risk rally ran into a brick wall in European trading as traders booked profits across most asset classes. A resurgent dollar saw the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) fall to 9.77%, its lowest since 1993, suggesting the market thinks the world is a safer place than at any time in the last 25 years.

Whether you consider this a  gross mispricing of risk or not, the fall of the VIX further hollows out the safe haven bid that has underpinned gold for most of 2017. Should volatility remain becalmed, gold may find itself on the losing end of a deeper correction to the downside.

Gold this morning has initial resistance at yesterday’s high of 1236.50, followed by 1241.60. It is hovering rather nervously above the 100-day moving average at 1223.00 and then 1221.50, yesterday’s low. A close below these levels signalling the next possible down leg could be near.

Current Gold Price:

Currently, Gold is trading at 1,227.39, up +0.09%, having posted a daily high at 1,228.67 and low at 1,224.14.

CRUDE OIL:

Oil continued its rebound overnight but could not hold onto the gains with both Brent and WTI spot finishing roughly unchanged from the previous day. Soothing words from Saudi Arabia about extending the production cut deal, possibly into 2018 supported prices for most of the day until a resurgent U.S. Dollar took the heat out of the rally.

Oil will continue to be headline driven as we head into tomorrow’s crude inventory figures. However, one suspects that OPEC’s comments to talk up crude are already generating diminishing returns with both contracts still trading at the bottom end of their long term ranges

Brent spot trades at 49.10 this morning in Asia with resistance at 50.00 and support near the overnight low around 48.15.

WTI spot trades 46.35 with resistance at 47.00 and support initially at 45.50. A break of the latter may see newly minted longs at these levels heading for the exit door.

Current Crude Oil Price:

Currently, Crude Oil is trading at 46.44, up +0.02%, having posted a daily high at 46.66 and low at 46.39.

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GOLD AND CRUDE OIL FORECAST

Commodity Market Talking Points:

• Gold rates keep on falling in FOMC meeting aftermath
• Crude oil rates fall to six-week low as selloff heats up 

Gold:

Gold charges retreated to a seven-week low as markets endured to reckon with the final results of the FOMC policy announcement. The spotlight now turns to April’s US employment report. This is predicted to show payrolls growth picked up last month after hitting a ten-month low in March.

The Fed has disregarded the first-quarter downturn in US development as “transitory”, signaling that it’s appetite for price hikes is undiminished. Because of this something shy of a dramatic disappointment is unlikely to offer the gold a lot of a lasting lifeline.

Gold Technical Level:

A break above $1229.51 (38.2% fib) would open up upside towards $1241.13 (Mar 24 low) and $1247.31 (Apr 10 low). On the lower side, breach of support at $1225.57 (previous day’s low) would expose $1216.80 (Feb 15 low) and $1209.14 (50% fib).

Crude Oil:

Crude oil prices maintain to sink – hitting a six-month low in Asian trade – after suffering the largest day by day decline from early March. The drop inside the benchmark WTI futures contract was observed by way of the highest extent in months.

Traders self belief in the capability of an OPEC production reduce scheme to offset swelling swing delivery has been eroding since mid-April. Liquidation extended after EIA reported that, amongst different things, US output rose for an 11th consecutive week. That’s the longest streak of returned-to-returned gains in over four years.

Crude Oil Technical Level:

A break above $ 45 (round number) could yield a test of $ 45.63 (daily top) beyond which $ 46.19 (daily pivot) could be tested. While a breach of $ 43.50 (psychological levels) would expose $ 43.03 (early Nov lows), below which downside opens up for a test of $ 42.20 (mid-Nov lows).

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